Euro 2012 final: Spain-Italy 4:0

SPAIN		4	:	0		ITALY
	Silva 14', Alba 41' Torres 84', Mata 89'

My match rating: -_-

My man of the match: Iniesta (S)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

Well, fuck.

No, not really. Spain was the better team and they played like it. The score, unfortunately, is too severe to the losers and doesn't adequately represent the values on the pitch. If Italy had played their best and had not had to be down to ten men, Spain would have probably won it 2-0 or 3-1, and that would have been more representative. But c'est la vie. As I said many times before and I won't take back now, at the end of the day all that matters in football is the scoreline, and the rest is chatter.

Italy ought to find pride in the rest of their tournament. Somewhat like Lippi in 2006, Prandelli has designed an efficient football machine by bunching inexperienced youngsters around the three pillars Buffon, De Rossi, and Pirlo. And in the midst of a major legal scandal back at home, this ragtag team won a ticket to the final of football's most difficult international tournament, only to lose to the best team of... probably the last two or three decades; best of all time, according to some madmen, but we don't listen to madmen.

So, once more, Forza Azzurri!

Some more miscellaneous end-of-tourney reflections on Euro 2012 are forthcoming.
.
.

Euro 2012 semifinal: Portugal-Spain 2:4 apk

PORTUGAL

2

:

4

SPAIN

              0 : 0   a.e.t.


ORDER OF PENALTIES

Xabi Alonso (0:0), Moutinho (0:0)
Iniesta (0:1), Pepe (1:1)
Pique (1:2), Nani (2:2)
Sergio Ramos (2:3), Bruno Alves (2:3)
Fabregas (2:4)


My match rating: ★

My man of the match: Casillas (S)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

As predicted, Portugal managed to out-play Spain for much of the match by simply matching their playing style. Bento must have realized, as Prandelli also had in the group stage, that the way to play Spain is to not play them. Keep the ball, make possession, and accelerate suddenly to create scoring chances. The more you do it, the less Spain has a chance to. Surely enough, if we look at the ball possession statistics we see that Spain held the ball a mere 58% of the time. While still good, it's a huge change for the 70%+ that we'd gotten used to in the previous rounds. By handling a good chunk of the play, Portugal handled the match.

But of course that's not enough: you also have to score. Portugal didn't, and while their opportunities were not nearly as vivid as Italy's against England, they were still pretty damn good. More importantly, they had more than Spain did, at least during regulation. Spain are good scorers, but what they're really good at is not being scored against. Del Bosque's somewhat improvised defense, with Jordi Alba filling Puyol's large shoes, worked out remarkably well throughout the tournament, as Spain hasn't taken a single goal since Di Natale's bender in the first half of the first game of the first round. Ronaldo may not have shined yesterday, but a good deal of that has to do with the fact that the Spanish defenders didn't give him a chance to take clean shots.

The penalties were a weird affair. I struggle to recall a match where this happened. For one, both teams missed the first penalty, Spain with the France match-winner Alonso and Portugal with Moutinho. Both were saves, too, and not misses (though as I've said before, every saved penalty is also basically a miss). Then we saw two successful series of good penalties, including a half-Panenka by Sergio Ramos. I was surprised, for Ramos is barely able to kick the ball at all, let alone kick it pretty. But in it went, and although not as beautiful or meaningful as Pirlo's, it was a nice penalty. Then something odd happened. Bruno Alves went to kick the third penalty, but right after placing the ball on the spot he walked back to the center, and Nani came to kick the penalty instead. I gotta assume that they were simply confused as whose turn it was next, for Alves did eventually kick the fourth penalty. But it betrayed a lack of focus, which in a war of nerves like a penalty shootout can be fatal. And it was, for Alves eventually missed the fourth penalty, giving Fabregas the chance to take Spain through to the final. Of course, Cesc did.

Perhaps the most stunning thing of all is that Ronaldo didn't even get to kick a penalty. Alright, by now it's understood that I hate the guy, but he is the most skilled Portuguese player... so why would you ever put yourself in a situation where he might not even contribute?! Usually, the best penalty takers will kick either first (to put your team up, or even, and thus encourage the rest) or fourth (for more often than not that ends up being the decisive penalty). The fifth penalty is rarely decisive, especially if your team is second in kicking order, so I have no idea what was going through Bento's head as he picked the list. As them Catholics say, "mystery of faith."

Now Spain awaits the winner of Germany-Italy, which is played later today. Whatever happens, it will be an awesome match. Spain-Germany would be the rematch of the Euro 2008 final and of the 2010 World Cup semifinal. Spain won both 1-0, both times displaying their trademark tiki-taka and effectively neutralizing the more creative German offense. The 2008 final is of course more relevant to Euro history: there has never been a repeat final in two consecutive editions of the same major international tournament. Spain-Italy, then, would be very interesting for three reasons. One, the teams are quickly developing a rivalry. Spain knocked Italy out in the Euro 2008 quarterfinals after a tight match resolved by a tense penalty shootout, and then of course they were in the same group in this edition. Two, it would be the only time in the Euro or World Cup history that the two finalists come from the same group. Third and much more interestingly, so far Italy has proven to be the only team capable of truly challenging Spain. Del Bosque's team struggled mightily in the first match and only came as close to winning it as Italy did. Should they meet again in Sunday's final, Spain would still be favorite, but Italy would give them a run for their money.

.
.

Euro 2012 quarterfinal # 3: Spain-France

SPAIN		2	:	0		FRANCE
	Xabi Alonso 19', 91'

My match rating: ★★

My man of the match: Xabi Alonso (S)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights (soon!)

Spain are still the world's best team right now. As Nils Liedholm used to say, "for as long as you have the ball, they cannot score." Del Bosque, like his colleague Guardiola, takes this school of thought very seriously, and this is the result.

Unlike Barcelona, though, Spain is not a traditionally pretty team to watch. I certainly don't need to see goals to enjoy a match, as I like tactics most of all. From this perspective, then, Spain's matches are gorgeous and you'll rarely see a match managed so rationally.

Spain treat football professionally: they know what they have to do to win and they do it. In a sense, you could say that they have mastered the art of winning. I'm going out on a limb here, but they may be the first team in the modern football era (post-Rimet, so post-1970) who are able to do so. Perhaps in 20-some years some will look back and call them a "best" team or whatever. Football fans are notoriously skeptical of such labels, but it may be inevitable.

As far as this one match is concerned, I was a little surprised at how easily France let themselves be caught in the Spaniards' net. That is not to say that I expected Blanc's boys to be on par with Del Bosque's: France are in the middle of an inter-generational shift and they did well to clear the group stage at all. But given that Spain's lead was 1-0 for the entire match, I would have expected a harsher reaction. Yes, it was wise not to force the issue in the first half, for the first rule of rational defensive football is: "when you're down, stay down and try not to get further down!" But in the second half France allowed Spain to resume business as usual, and there's no digging yourself out of that hole. Simply put, the young Frenchmen were insufficiently assertive before a much more experienced Spanish side, and they paid for it.

Now we have an exciting all-Iberian match-up in the first semifinal. I have not yet written of the Spain-Portugal football rivalry (I need to research it more!), but I will when we get a little closer to that match.
.
.

Euro 2012: group C third round possible outcomes

At the end of the three group matches, two or more teams may be tied; perhaps even all four. Rematches or penalty shootouts are impossible at this stage, so UEFA's tie-breaking regulations apply. Click on the link  to read them entirely, or you can read my quick summary instead.

Below are all nine possible scenarios in Group C. It's not going to be easy for Italy, so let's hope that Spain and Croatia are honest and don't fix an easy draw with lots of goals (but see some reflections on that here...)

Click to enlarge. Right-click and save to download.

.

Keeping up with the Marios: Italian scandals and history repeating

When group C plays its last Euro 2012 group-stage round on Monday, there is distinct possibility that Spain and Croatia fix their match and advance both, leaving Italy behind.

Even if Italy defeats Ireland, which is of course far from obvious, its fate still depends on the outcome of the Spain-Croatia match. If it has a winner, whoever wins it advances with 7 points, along with Italy who will then have 5. But if that match is a tie, then all three teams will end up with 5 points and we will need a tie-breaker to decide which two advance.

And therein lies the catch: if the Spain-Croatia draw ends 2-2, Italy is mathematically out, regardless of how well it defeats Ireland. This is because according to UEFA regulations, the relevant tiebreaker in this case is how many goals the three tied teams have scored only in the matches played among themselves. So it's both irrelevant how many goals Italy scores in defeating Ireland, for those goals won't count toward the tie-breaker; and relevant how many goals Spain and Croatia score in their draw, since all of those goals will count. I will post a much more detailed analysis tonight, discussing all groups and all tie-breaking rules.

The reason for the existence of this rule is to curtail the influence of "cushion teams." Sometimes there are much weaker teams that, on the last match day and upon seeing themselves already knocked out, may be bribed to (or decide to) concede many goals to their opponent, who may have an interest in improving its own goal difference to increase its chances of breaking a tie in its favor. So instead of breaking ties only by goal difference earned in all the disputed group matches, the rule now breaks ties according to "alternate" goal difference, that is, the goal difference only among the teams in question, those that are in fact tied. But surely even this rule leaves open the possibility of dishonesty, which is precisely the one in question. At most, it but reduces the likelihood of foul play.

What is more, this isn't the first time that this happens to Italy. Back at Euro 2008, Italy's group also included Sweden, Denmark, and Bulgaria. Italy was lagging, and on the third matchday, a 2-2 draw between Sweden and Denmark would knock Italy out mathematically. Surely enough, even though Italy beat Bulgaria, Sweden and Denmark slowly played their way into a 2-2 tie, including two (literally) incredible goals caused by defensive mistakes. UEFA probed for foul play, but nothing came out. Nor could it have, because when the outcome is so obvious, there is no need for an explicit agreement: all players, coaches, and staff "just know." Likewise, this Monday at Euro 2012, there will be no need to envision Iniesta and Modric meet at some shady cafe in a Polish small town and agree to fix the match over a Pabst and a good cigar.

Fixing things like that is the Italian way, after all! Sports journalist Caterina Camerlengo argues in this op-ed that it would be extremely hypocritical of Italians NOT to expect foul play from Spaniards and Croatians. For the past six years, Italian football has seen scandals so serious that they will eventually bring to the downfall and dissolution of calcio as it exists today. It's now clear that it's common practice for Italian football professionals to fix matches, bribe, bet, and trade gifts and sex for certain favors on matchday. This involves players, coaches, administrators, agents, and of course referees. Since 2006, over 100 people have been arrested and over a thousand questioned by police departments nationwide. Millions of euros' worth of fines have been levied, and some individuals have done considerable prison time. Yet, very little changes.

And we would dare be surprised if two other nations decided that they didn't want to bother being fair to us, after all?

Yes, Spain's and Croatia's footballing federations are currently above suspicion, which means that there is a relatively low likelihood of them even entertaining the idea of a stitch-up. And yes, Italy's scandals are for the most part domestic and have not yet marred international football, except of course to further diminish the already low weight that FIGC (the Italian football governing body) carries within UEFA.

Yet, I can't shake the thought that if Spain and Croatia fix or otherwise tacitly agree on a 2-2, or simply don't do much to change that score should it naturally arise, then in some way Italy will have deserved it. And if you know how much the Euro means to me, you know that I wouldn't say that lightly. Italy's 2006 world cup win ranks as the single happiest moment of my (sports-fan) life, especially as it came on the heels of a major international humiliation for the betting scandal. But this time, I think we've gone too far, and I wouldn't be so shocked if others decided to pay us back in the same currency.

Unless, of course, they decide to do the Jesus thing and turn the other cheek, but neither Spain nor Croatia are very religious countries -- again, that should be Italy's territory!

.

.

Euro 2012: group C matchday 2 analysis

ITALY		1	:	1		CROATIA
	Pirlo 36'				Madzukic 71'

My match rating: ★★

My man of the match: Pirlo (I)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

Another dominating first half by Italy that results in a much smaller lead than it should have. If we had converted all even a quarter of our chances, we would have gone to rest up 2-0. That one goal makes a huge difference, both psychologically and for actual scoring purposes. This is even more infuriating given the high quality of Pirlo's masterpiece performance. Not only does he still got it, but how. What a fantastic player.

Instead, Italy allowed Croatia to regain its strength, and regain it they did, as the rational and direct team that they are. Modric's midfield dominated large parts of the second half and the Italians kept falling further and further back. With that said, the equalizer only came due to a monumental marking error by Chiellini. As by now is  beginning to become usual, Prandelli's boys don't seem to be holding up for the whole 90, physically but most of all psychologically. Of course, this is an alarming sign. It speaks of a weak mind, and weak-minded teams always lose in the end.

Now it becomes very hard for Italy and easy for Croatia. As usual, in four-team groups you must win, and if you don't, it doesn't matter how well you play or how many goals you score when you draw. Let us hope that Spain and Croatia don't decide to "fix" their match, which would automatically knock Italy out even should they beat Ireland. More on all this tomorrow after the end of group D.

---

---

SPAIN		4	:	0		IRELAND
	Torres 4', 70' Silva 49' Fabregas 83'

My match rating: ★★

My man of the match: Torres (S)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

EL NINO! Torres is back, and oh my gods is he ever. Way to send a clear "fuck off" message to the critics. Or, to be a little more optimistic, way to say "thank you!" to Del Bosque. The coach's faith in Nando was rewarded immediately with a stellar goal in the opening five and another late in the second. Even more importantly, Torres displayed a lot of confidence and played like a classic main forward: a tall, strong post who can keep possession (giving the rest of the team ample time to arrive) or create mouth-watering opportunities for himself.

Torres isn't all that worked well, though. The whole team seemed to regain confidence and fall back on the team play that gave Spain a back-to-back Euro and World Cup in 2008 and 2010. As ESPN commentator Ian Darke so well put it at the end, Spain hadn't gone anywhere: they had simply met a like-minded and highly technical team, like Italy, who gave them a run for their money. As soon as they could play against a lesser opponent, they got back into it.

Indeed, Ireland was not a very worthy opponent at all. The Irish were frustrated by Torres's early goal in what was for them an elimination game. You simply don't play well when you're under from the get-go and you know you must win, or at least draw. But even considering that, there simply doesn't seem to be a lot of talent in this Irish team, which is now mathematically out of Euro 2012.

Much like for Croatia, instead, the odds for Spain are looking quite good, both to simply advance but also to win the group. Again, look for my "third-round special" post tomorrow evening!

---

---

GROUP D STANDINGS

team	points	wins	ties	losses	goals+	goals-
SPAIN	4	1	1	0	5	1
CROATIA	4	1	1	0	4	2
ITALY	2	0	2	0	2	2
IRELAND	0	0	0	2	1	7

Euro 2012: Group C matchday 1 analysis

SPAIN		1	:	1		ITALY
	Di Natale, 61'				Fabregas, 64'

My match rating: ★★★

My man of the match: Pirlo (I)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

What an excellent game! I was worried that it might be a one-sided affair, with Spain tiki-taka'ing their way to a 3-0.

Instead, Italy found their footing early and kept the Spaniards on their toes for the first hour of the game. Pirlo and Motta were crucial to Italy's early midfield domination, as was Del Bosque's decision to play his star midfielders Iniesta and Fabregas as improvised forwards. While Iniesta was dangerous and the best of his men, Spain's legendary midfield fell to Pirlo's superb tactical intelligence. Pivotal was also Prandelli's decision to play De Rossi as a sweeper, for he and Chiellini guaranteed an experienced and rock-solid foundation for an otherwise young and vulnerable defensive line (read more on De Rossi's defender star quality here). At the other end, Cassano practiced what he learned from his trequartistarole model Totti and dominated Spain's defensive three-quarters.

Then, as usual, the game changed with the first score. Pirlo served Di Natale a delightful ball at the edge of the box after a quick counter. The Udinese striker should have sided it to the oncoming Cassano, but instead curved it past a blameless Casillas and just inside the far post.  At that point, despite some interesting chances for Spain early in the second half, Italy's lead was well deserved.  That shocked the Spaniards, who seemed to suddenly remember that they are World champions, European champions, and  overall football demigods.Cesc equalized right away after a cunning inside pass from Silva: a goal whose beauty matches and perhaps surpasses Di Natale's. Italy was in for it and risked big in the next 15' as Spain gained yards and confidence. With the scare gone and the midfield balance reestablished, both teams crafted and missed the game's clearest opportunities: Torres twice for Spain and Di Natale and Marchisio for Italy.

The final score fairly represents an exciting, fully balanced, and very intense game, which rivals Germany-Portugal as the best yet in Euro 2012. The only sour note is Italy's Balotelli, not because of his hotheadedness (though that was definitely there...) but for the missed chance at 55'. I've rarely seen such a display of stubborn self-confidence in the small box, and the football gods rightfully punished him. And so did Prandelli, who promptly replaced him with Di Natale. And we know how that turned out!

---

---

IRELAND		1	:	3		CROATIA
	St Ledger, 19'				Mandžukic, 3' Jelavic, 43' Mandžukic, 48'

My match rating: ★★ ½

My man of the match: Jelavic (C)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

This match was very entertaining, but it was also evidence that you cannot judge a football match by its score, as so many laypeople tend to do: of today's two matches, by far the most rewarding one was the one with the fewest goals. That's because Italy and Spain gave life to a game of chess with high stakes and abundant talent, whereas Croatia and Ireland are much lower on talent and higher in energy, will, and brazenness, and their game fully reflected this character. That may appeal to some viewers, and as I said it was very entertaining and I had a lot of fun, but consummate footy fans tend to favor brains over brawn.

With that said, there was plenty of brain at work, at least on the Croatian side. That is not to say that Ireland's coach, the Italian Giovanni Trapattoni, didn't plan the game right; but I often felt that his men were being outsmarted by the Croatian midfielders' wider range and superior physical prowess. The score of 3-1 may be a little severe on Ireland, who played a resolute game and produced at least as many chances as their opponents. But of course, the scoreboard is what matters in the end.

The Blazers thus climb to the top of group C after matchday one, which confirms that Croatia are the third power in this group. Should one of the powerhouses Spain and Italy make a false step, Croatia will be there to pick up the pieces and grab the second spot.

---

---

GROUP C STANDINGS

team	points	wins	ties	losses	goals+	goals-
CROATIA	3	1	0	0	3	1
ITALY	1	0	1	0	1	1
SPAIN	1	0	1	0	1	1
IRELAND	0	0	0	1	1	3

Ten notable exclusions from Euro 2012

Eurosport Italia published this list. Can't say I disagree. Reporting the list below.

1. VILLA -- Barcelona, Spain -- injury
2. PUYOL  --  Barcelona, Spain  --  injury
3. ROSSI  --  Villareal, Italy  --  injury
4. RICHARDS  --  Manchester City, England  --  choice
5. SOLDADO  --  Villareal, Spain  --  choice
6. DEJONG  --  Ajax, Netherlands  --  choice
7. GUIDETTI  --  Feyenoord, Sweden  --  choice
8. MARIN  --  Werder Bremen  --  choice
9. GOURCUFF  --  Lyon, France  --  choice
10. CACAU  --  Stuttgart, Germany  --  choice

Like the author, I am especially surprised about Richards and Soldado, who both played a stellar season in their respective clubs.

On the one hand, "there is no room for everyone" is a piss-poor excuse to justify bad picks. On the other hand, it is true that some will be left out, and sometimes it makes sense to rely on "fame."

Ought I to bring a bold young striker who's currently in great shape but has little international experience... or should I rely on the old guard, counting on the fact that they're going to deliver when the occasion calls for it?

Beats me. In 2006, the two oldest teams in the tourney (by far), Italy and France, ended up playing the final. In 2010, Spain and Netherlands were among the youngest. A sapient mixture of both is probably the way to go.

Spain's list of 23 announced

Euro 2012 player lists are starting to pour in. Italy's and Germany's are expected today. Spain's selection analysis here. Most notable exclusions: Adrian and deGea, but is anyone surprised of the latter? Villa is expected not to make it.


GOALKEEPERS
Iker Casillas (Real Madrid)
Victor Valdes (Barcelona)
Pepe Reina (Liverpool)

DEFENDERS
Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid)
Gerard Pique (Barcelona)
Juanfran Torres (Atletico)
Alvaro Arbeloa (Real Madrid)
Raul Albiol (Real Madrid)
Javi Martinez (Bilbao)
Jordi Alba (Valencia)

MIDFIELDERS
Sergio Busquets (Barcelona)
Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid)
Andres Iniesta (Barcelona)
Xavi Hernandez (Barcelona)
Cesc Fabregas (Barcelona)
Santi Cazorla (Malaga)

FORWARDS
Pedro Rodriguez (Barcelona)
Juan Mata (Chelsea)
Jesus Navas (Sevilla)
David Silva (Manchester City)
Fernando Llorente (Bilbao)
Fernando Torres (Chelsea)
Alvaro Negredo (Sevilla)


As usual, on paper they are unbeatable. Here's my ideal starting 11 from this selection, assuming of course equality of fitness and disposition:  Casillas;  Ramos, Pique, Albiol, Juanfran;  Iniesta, Xavi, Cesc;  Silva, Pedro (Mata), Llorente.