Even if Italy defeats Ireland, which is of course far from obvious, its fate still depends on the outcome of the Spain-Croatia match. If it has a winner, whoever wins it advances with 7 points, along with Italy who will then have 5. But if that match is a tie, then all three teams will end up with 5 points and we will need a tie-breaker to decide which two advance.
And therein lies the catch: if the Spain-Croatia draw ends 2-2, Italy is mathematically out, regardless of how well it defeats Ireland. This is because according to UEFA regulations, the relevant tiebreaker in this case is how many goals the three tied teams have scored only in the matches played among themselves. So it's both irrelevant how many goals Italy scores in defeating Ireland, for those goals won't count toward the tie-breaker; and relevant how many goals Spain and Croatia score in their draw, since all of those goals will count. I will post a much more detailed analysis tonight, discussing all groups and all tie-breaking rules.
The reason for the existence of this rule is to curtail the influence of "cushion teams." Sometimes there are much weaker teams that, on the last match day and upon seeing themselves already knocked out, may be bribed to (or decide to) concede many goals to their opponent, who may have an interest in improving its own goal difference to increase its chances of breaking a tie in its favor. So instead of breaking ties only by goal difference earned in all the disputed group matches, the rule now breaks ties according to "alternate" goal difference, that is, the goal difference only among the teams in question, those that are in fact tied. But surely even this rule leaves open the possibility of dishonesty, which is precisely the one in question. At most, it but reduces the likelihood of foul play.
What is more, this isn't the first time that this happens to Italy. Back at Euro 2008, Italy's group also included Sweden, Denmark, and Bulgaria. Italy was lagging, and on the third matchday, a 2-2 draw between Sweden and Denmark would knock Italy out mathematically. Surely enough, even though Italy beat Bulgaria, Sweden and Denmark slowly played their way into a 2-2 tie, including two (literally) incredible goals caused by defensive mistakes. UEFA probed for foul play, but nothing came out. Nor could it have, because when the outcome is so obvious, there is no need for an explicit agreement: all players, coaches, and staff "just know." Likewise, this Monday at Euro 2012, there will be no need to envision Iniesta and Modric meet at some shady cafe in a Polish small town and agree to fix the match over a Pabst and a good cigar.
Fixing things like that is the Italian way, after all! Sports journalist Caterina Camerlengo argues in this op-ed that it would be extremely hypocritical of Italians NOT to expect foul play from Spaniards and Croatians. For the past six years, Italian football has seen scandals so serious that they will eventually bring to the downfall and dissolution of calcio as it exists today. It's now clear that it's common practice for Italian football professionals to fix matches, bribe, bet, and trade gifts and sex for certain favors on matchday. This involves players, coaches, administrators, agents, and of course referees. Since 2006, over 100 people have been arrested and over a thousand questioned by police departments nationwide. Millions of euros' worth of fines have been levied, and some individuals have done considerable prison time. Yet, very little changes.
And we would dare be surprised if two other nations decided that they didn't want to bother being fair to us, after all?
Yes, Spain's and Croatia's footballing federations are currently above suspicion, which means that there is a relatively low likelihood of them even entertaining the idea of a stitch-up. And yes, Italy's scandals are for the most part domestic and have not yet marred international football, except of course to further diminish the already low weight that FIGC (the Italian football governing body) carries within UEFA.
Yet, I can't shake the thought that if Spain and Croatia fix or otherwise tacitly agree on a 2-2, or simply don't do much to change that score should it naturally arise, then in some way Italy will have deserved it. And if you know how much the Euro means to me, you know that I wouldn't say that lightly. Italy's 2006 world cup win ranks as the single happiest moment of my (sports-fan) life, especially as it came on the heels of a major international humiliation for the betting scandal. But this time, I think we've gone too far, and I wouldn't be so shocked if others decided to pay us back in the same currency.
Unless, of course, they decide to do the Jesus thing and turn the other cheek, but neither Spain nor Croatia are very religious countries -- again, that should be Italy's territory!
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