Euro 2012 semifinal: Portugal-Spain 2:4 apk

PORTUGAL

2

:

4

SPAIN

              0 : 0   a.e.t.


ORDER OF PENALTIES

Xabi Alonso (0:0), Moutinho (0:0)
Iniesta (0:1), Pepe (1:1)
Pique (1:2), Nani (2:2)
Sergio Ramos (2:3), Bruno Alves (2:3)
Fabregas (2:4)


My match rating: ★

My man of the match: Casillas (S)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

As predicted, Portugal managed to out-play Spain for much of the match by simply matching their playing style. Bento must have realized, as Prandelli also had in the group stage, that the way to play Spain is to not play them. Keep the ball, make possession, and accelerate suddenly to create scoring chances. The more you do it, the less Spain has a chance to. Surely enough, if we look at the ball possession statistics we see that Spain held the ball a mere 58% of the time. While still good, it's a huge change for the 70%+ that we'd gotten used to in the previous rounds. By handling a good chunk of the play, Portugal handled the match.

But of course that's not enough: you also have to score. Portugal didn't, and while their opportunities were not nearly as vivid as Italy's against England, they were still pretty damn good. More importantly, they had more than Spain did, at least during regulation. Spain are good scorers, but what they're really good at is not being scored against. Del Bosque's somewhat improvised defense, with Jordi Alba filling Puyol's large shoes, worked out remarkably well throughout the tournament, as Spain hasn't taken a single goal since Di Natale's bender in the first half of the first game of the first round. Ronaldo may not have shined yesterday, but a good deal of that has to do with the fact that the Spanish defenders didn't give him a chance to take clean shots.

The penalties were a weird affair. I struggle to recall a match where this happened. For one, both teams missed the first penalty, Spain with the France match-winner Alonso and Portugal with Moutinho. Both were saves, too, and not misses (though as I've said before, every saved penalty is also basically a miss). Then we saw two successful series of good penalties, including a half-Panenka by Sergio Ramos. I was surprised, for Ramos is barely able to kick the ball at all, let alone kick it pretty. But in it went, and although not as beautiful or meaningful as Pirlo's, it was a nice penalty. Then something odd happened. Bruno Alves went to kick the third penalty, but right after placing the ball on the spot he walked back to the center, and Nani came to kick the penalty instead. I gotta assume that they were simply confused as whose turn it was next, for Alves did eventually kick the fourth penalty. But it betrayed a lack of focus, which in a war of nerves like a penalty shootout can be fatal. And it was, for Alves eventually missed the fourth penalty, giving Fabregas the chance to take Spain through to the final. Of course, Cesc did.

Perhaps the most stunning thing of all is that Ronaldo didn't even get to kick a penalty. Alright, by now it's understood that I hate the guy, but he is the most skilled Portuguese player... so why would you ever put yourself in a situation where he might not even contribute?! Usually, the best penalty takers will kick either first (to put your team up, or even, and thus encourage the rest) or fourth (for more often than not that ends up being the decisive penalty). The fifth penalty is rarely decisive, especially if your team is second in kicking order, so I have no idea what was going through Bento's head as he picked the list. As them Catholics say, "mystery of faith."

Now Spain awaits the winner of Germany-Italy, which is played later today. Whatever happens, it will be an awesome match. Spain-Germany would be the rematch of the Euro 2008 final and of the 2010 World Cup semifinal. Spain won both 1-0, both times displaying their trademark tiki-taka and effectively neutralizing the more creative German offense. The 2008 final is of course more relevant to Euro history: there has never been a repeat final in two consecutive editions of the same major international tournament. Spain-Italy, then, would be very interesting for three reasons. One, the teams are quickly developing a rivalry. Spain knocked Italy out in the Euro 2008 quarterfinals after a tight match resolved by a tense penalty shootout, and then of course they were in the same group in this edition. Two, it would be the only time in the Euro or World Cup history that the two finalists come from the same group. Third and much more interestingly, so far Italy has proven to be the only team capable of truly challenging Spain. Del Bosque's team struggled mightily in the first match and only came as close to winning it as Italy did. Should they meet again in Sunday's final, Spain would still be favorite, but Italy would give them a run for their money.

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Euro 2012 quarterfinal #1: Czech Republic-Portugal

CZECH REP.		0	:	1		PORTUGAL
					Ronaldo 79'

My match rating: ★

My man of the match: BRonaldo (P)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

An excruciatingly boring match temporarily jolted awake by a stellar goal and then quickly re-precipitated into nothingness. Sounds like a typical match in a knock-out stage at a major international tournament!

I might be doing some undue folk psychology here, and if so I apologize... but it seems to me that both teams had too much to lose and played as if the only important thing was not losing it. That mindset is understandable, as both football federations have reaped much less than they have sown in the last decade, but inevitably it gives rise to boring and annoying matches.

It would be unfair to say that both teams parked the bus. Instead of parked buses, we saw two stalled buses. On ESPN, Alexi Lalas said that Portugal prevailed because they had patience. Sure, if we want to put it that way... Both teams had "patience," in the sense that both tried to out-exhaust, out-pass, and out-wait the opponent. That looks pretty good when Spain do it, but these two aren't Spain.

Instead, as usual in these matches, what breaks the tie is a star play, the proverbial rabbit pulled out of a hat, a lightning bolt from a clear sky, an ace up the champion's sleeve, or <insert here the horribly cliched metaphor of your choosing>. BRonaldo's hair stylist was once again effective and the madridista delivered when it mattered. That header was difficult to make and he deserves praise. I am not jumping on the "Ronaldo is the world's second best player right now" bandwagon, because that is false; but he is very talented, won half Liga, and single-handedly took Portugal past the group of death and now into the semis. Not bad for a douchebag.

Portugal will face the winner of the quarterfinal between Spain and France. Whoever advances, it will be interesting. Spain-Portugal is a local derby and there is pretty bad blood between the two nations, in football if nothing else, so that's always fun. But France-Portugal is the richest rivalry, and the two seem to have a knack for meeting in the end stages of major tournaments! At Euro 1984, France beat Portugal in an epic semifinal, one of the most exciting matches in European football history. Tied at the 90, the teams scored three goals in extra time, including Platini's gorgeous winner; France would then defeat Spain in the final, securing their first major title since the 1930s. Sixteen years later, at Euro 2000, again France defeated Portugal, again in the semis, and again in extra time, in a tense match decided by a controversial handball and a penalty. This time too France would go on to win the tournament, defeating Italy in the first and only major international final to make use of the "golden goal" to determine the winner. And as if all that weren't enough, France once again defeated Portugal at the 2006 World Cup, again on a penalty during the first half of the semifinal. That time, though, France would go on to lose the final to Italy in an epic and much-hyped rematch of the 2000 European final (think Zidane and Materazzi: a prime cut of football lore right there).

So it seems that when these two meet, they make it count. We'll see if we witness another chapter to this saga!
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Euro 2012: group B third round possible outcomes

At the end of the three group matches, two or more teams may be tied; perhaps even all four. Rematches or penalty shootouts are impossible at this stage, so UEFA's tie-breaking regulations apply. Click here to read a quick and accessible summary of those rules and of the acronyms I use in the analysis below.

Below are all nine possible scenarios in Group B, which plays today. As you can see, Germany is almost guaranteed to advance, but given that there were no draws in this group, not even the Netherlands are mathematically out yet!

Click to enlarge. Right-click and save to download.

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Euro 2012: group B matchday 2 analysis

DENMARK		2	:	3		PORTUGAL
	Bendtner 41', 80'				Pepe 24' H. Postiga 36' Varela 87'

My match rating: ★★★

My man of the match: Bendtner (D)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

What a match! Not just the amount of goals, but how, when, and by whom. Plus, it helped that CR7 had a bad day, but let's not get ahead.

Portugal showed a lot more confidence in the first half and gained a deserved 2-0 lead in the latter stages. Pivotal to the Selecção domination was a careful offensive midfield, resting primarily on the shoulders of Mereiles and Postiga.

But we have long-since learned that we should never rule Denmark out, and surely enough Arsenal's Bendtner got them up on the scoreboard with 4' left to play. Aside from the score change, psychologically it is much easier to take to the locker rooms knowing that the job to do is half as hard. And early in the second, Bendtner struck again and equalized with another sneaky header on the run. Now he has scored in five out of the six international games that he has played against Portugal. I fancy they don't fancy him much back in Lisbon! (That might have something to do with these underpants... I mean, wtf?! lol) 

But before Bendtner's equalizer, Ronaldo wasted two incredible chances to extend Portugal's lead to 3-1. The first two of these chances, too, were crystal clear, those kinds of chances that make you jump up and yell "my dead grandma would score that!!" at the TV. I never did like Ronaldo, who is a bully and a much overrated player. This seems to prove it further, as has his subpar performance in nearly every important international game he has played. Put simply, he cannot lead his team and does not deliver when it matters . These are the marks of a good club player who will never be remembered in any other setting.

Instead, Portugal's win came thanks to the young Varela, who capitalized on his one chance. He struck, was denied, kept his cool, switched to the other foot, and struck again, this time successfully. It was an excellent goal, like all of Portugal's and Bendtner's second. Ronaldo aside, both teams played well and a win would not have been a steal for either.

Now the situation in group B is very interesting. Portugal, Denmark, and Germany each have 3 points, and if the Dutch beat the Deutsch (ha!) tonight it will be 3 all. Much as I like Germany, I hope they lose: that way we'll have an epic four-way tie and an unforgettable third round in four days!

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HOLLAND		1	:	2		GERMANY
	van Persie 73'				Gomez 24', 37'

My match rating: ★★

My man of the match: Gomez (G)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

"Unbelievable" is the word that comes to mind to describe the Netherlands' performance in these first two games. Van Marwijk's team can count on an impressive array of talent that most nations would pillage and murder to have. Not only does he play them conservatively, but they don't seem to be able to do even that very well. In the Denmark match they produced one of the most sterile offenses I have ever seen despite the many chances, and tonight they succumbed to the Germans' superior firepower and physical prowess.

Simply put, Germany ran more, faster, better, and for longer. With the exception of van Persie's lucky goal and the fifteen minutes that followed, Holland rarely even found its way into the German box. On the one hand, Ozil dominated the midfield over an obviously frustrated Sneijder, who must have felt like he was preaching in the desert, and he was. At the other end, Lahm and Schweinsteiger disposed of DeJong and Heitinga as they pleased. It was a stunning display of the tactical choice pioneered by Klinsmann and reaffirmed by Joachim Löw: contemporary Deutsch fußall is almost entirely centered on fast, all-court wingers. There is simply no way to counter that, if the wingers are good, and Lahm and Schweini are among the world's best.

No four-way tie at the top as I had hoped, but the situation is still interesting. In fact, it is even more so, for I have never seen a more intricate set of possibilities after the second match day. While it is typical for a group with no ties to be open until the last minute of the last match of the last round, this one is pretty damn insane. See some interesting scenarios after the standings table!

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GROUP B STANDINGS

team	points	wins	ties	losses	goals+	goals-
GERMANY	6	2	0	0	3	1
PORTUGAL	3	1	0	1	3	3
DENMARK	3	1	0	1	3	3
NETHERLANDS	0	0	0	2	1	3

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First I will explain the UEFA regulations for tie-breaking in Euro 2012, which are a little different than usual. Then I will apply these rules to group B and analyze each of the eight possible cases in some detail.

EURO 2012 TIE-BREAKING RULES

The first tie-breaking criterion to be used is alternate standings among the teams in question. If two teams are tied, say A and B, whoever won the match between A and B will advance. This is also sometimes called the criterion of direct confrontation. If three teams are tied instead, say A, B, & C, their points are recalculated as if this were a three-team group, thus ignoring the outcomes of all matches in which team D played. Hence the name "alternate" standings.

The second tie-breaking criterion is the goal difference in the matches among the teams in question, or, for short, alternate goal difference. In the case of a two-way tie not broken by the first criterion, the alternate goal difference will also be identical and we'll need to move to the third criterion (below). In the case of a three-way tie, the import of team D is once again ignored and the goal differences is recalculated. This is done by ignoring any goals that the three tied teams A-B-C have scored against or conceded to team D.

The third tie-breaking criterion is alternate goal scoring, which calculates the number of goals scored in the matches by the teams in question, thus again ignoring goals scored against the other team(s). In the case of a two- or three- way tie, this is often the deciding criterion. In the case of a four-way tie, this criterion is the first applicable one. This is so because the only way to get a four-way tie is if all matches in the group were drawn: then alternate standings and alternate goal difference will obviously be identical for all four teams.

Should there still be a tie, the fourth criterion is goal difference in all the group matches, thus including those played against teams that are not tied. The fifth criterion is goal scoring in all group matches. Sixth is UEFA ranking, seventh is fair play (fewest red cards first and then fewest yellows), and eighth is a coin toss. No international competition has ever required more than the fifth criterion of tie-breaking. In theory, only a group where all games resulted in identical draws (all 0-0, or all 1-1, etc) would need the sixth or more.

AS THEY APPLY TO "GROUP B" AT EURO 2012

Both games are ties.

• Germany qualify first (7) and Portugal qualify second (4). In this likely scenario, the standings would be: Germany 7, Portugal 4, Denmark 4, Holland 1, and Portugal would second due to alternate standings, having defeated Denmark in direct confrontation.

Denmark-Germany is a tie. Portugal beats Holland.

• Germany qualify first (7) and Portugal qualify second (6). Denmark and Holland are out with 4 and 0.

Denmark-Germany is a tie. Holland beats Portugal.

• Germany qualify first (7) and Denmark qualify second (4). Portugal and Holland are out with 3.

Denmark beats Germany. Portugal-Holland is a tie.

• Denmark qualify first (6) and Germany qualify second (6). Denmark takes first because of alternate standings / direct confrontation, having beaten Germany in the last match. Portugal and Holland are out with 4 and 1, respectively.

Denmark beats Germany. Holland beats Portugal.

• Denmark qualify first (6) and Germany qualify second (6). Denmark takes first because of alternate standings / direct confrontation, having beaten Germany in the last match. Portugal and Holland are out with 3 each.

Denmark beats Germany. Portugal beats Holland.

• Portugal and Denmark qualify. First and second spots depend on goal difference. The standings here would be: Portugal 6, Denmark 6, Germany 6, Holland 0.

• The criterion of alternate standings is useless, for the points recalculated after ignoring Holland result in a three-way tie at 3 points all. This is because all three have defeated Holland and all three have lost a match to one of the other three tied teams: Germany to Denmark, Denmark to Portugal, and Portugal to Germany.

• Alternate goal difference often breaks the tie, but not necessarily always. Ignoring Holland's import, right now it's Germany +1, Portugal +1, and Denmark -1. Thus, it depends on the actual scores. Say that Denmark wins by two goals and Portugal by one. The differences will be: Portugal +2, Denmark +1, and Germany -1, with Portugal taking first and Denmark second. But if, say, Denmark wins by four and Portugal by one, the differences are: Denmark +3, Portugal +2, and Germany -3, with Denmark taking first and Portugal second. However, if both Denmark and Portugal win by one, the differences are: Portugal +2, Denmark 0, and Germany 0. Portugal surely takes first, but Denmark and Germany are still tied and we must use another criterion.

• However, it is unclear exactly which one and why. I see at least three options. Thankfully, in the case of this one group all three possible outcomes are identical, so no problem...

• One option is that we reformulate this as a two-way tie and go back to the first criterion of alternate standings. If so, then Denmark takes second for having beaten Germany.

• Another option is to proceed to the third criterion, that of alternate goals scored. Recall that this was the number of goals scored "in the matches between the teams in question," thus ignoring the other teams. But which teams do we ignore? Only Holland, which was never a part of the three-way tie, or also Portugal, which was a part of the three-way tie but it's not a part of this two-way tie? I guess it's the latter, but the UEFA document is not crystal clear on this point. Either way, as I said, the outcome is the same. If we ignore only Holland, the alternate goals scored will be Denmark 2 and Germany 1. If we also ignore Portugal, it will be Denmark 0 and Germany 0. In either case, since in this scenario Denmark beats Germany, it will surely end up having more goals scored than Germany, and thus will advance as second in the group.

Germany beats Denmark. Holland beats Portugal.

• Germany qualify first (9) and Holland qualify second (3). The standings would be Germany 9, Holland 3, Portugal 3, and Denmark 3.

• Alternate standings does not break the tie. All three teams were beaten by Germany and earned their three points against one another: Denmark beat Holland, Portugal beat Denmark, and Holland beat Portugal.

• Alternate goal difference may or may not break the tie. Right now, the alternate goal difference is Portugal +1, Holland -1, and Denmark -1. If Holland beats Portugal by two goals or more, then the differences are: Holland +1 or more, Portugal -1 or less, and Denmark -1. Thus, the Dutch advance. But if Holland beats Portugal by only one goal, it will be: Holland 0, Portugal 0, and Denmark -1. Thus, in that case, we will need the third criterion to decide. (Notice that, of course, Denmark stands no chance in this scenario and at this level of tie-breaking: their goal difference will never move from -1, since they have yet to play Germany and whatever happens in that game is irrelevant, goal-wise).

• Alternate goal scoring depends on how we interpret the UEFA rule. I explained the problem in the previous scenario. The thing is that in this scenario, not all three outcomes are the same!!

• Option one: Holland advances. We go back to alternate standings, and Holland beats Portugal.

• Option two: Portugal advances. We stay with alternate goal scoring and only ignore Germany's contributions. Right now, Portugal earned its alternate goal difference of +1 by scoring 3 goals and conceding 2, while Holland earned its -1 by scoring 0 and conceding 1. Remember that the only reason we're at this level is if Holland beats Portugal by one goal. If so, then it's impossible for Holland to ever score more goals than Portugal in total, since Portugal already has a 3-goal-scored advantage over them. Thus, in this scenario, Portugal always advances.

• Option three: Holland advances. We stay with alternate goal scoring and ignore Germany's and Denmark's contributions both. If so, then both Portugal and Holland scored 0 goals, and since in this scenario Holland beats Portugal, Holland ends up with more goals scored than Portugal, and thus advances.

• If this ain't a fucking mess, I don't know what is!

Germany beats Denmark. Portugal beats Holland.

• Germany qualify first (9) and Portugal qualify second (6). Denmark and Holland are out with 3 and 0.

This group's ties will be broken by, at most, the third tie-breaking criterion. There is no mathematical possibility to get to the fourth tier and below.

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