Euro 2012: group B third round possible outcomes

At the end of the three group matches, two or more teams may be tied; perhaps even all four. Rematches or penalty shootouts are impossible at this stage, so UEFA's tie-breaking regulations apply. Click here to read a quick and accessible summary of those rules and of the acronyms I use in the analysis below.

Below are all nine possible scenarios in Group B, which plays today. As you can see, Germany is almost guaranteed to advance, but given that there were no draws in this group, not even the Netherlands are mathematically out yet!

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Euro 2012: group B matchday 2 analysis

DENMARK		2	:	3		PORTUGAL
	Bendtner 41', 80'				Pepe 24' H. Postiga 36' Varela 87'

My match rating: ★★★

My man of the match: Bendtner (D)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

What a match! Not just the amount of goals, but how, when, and by whom. Plus, it helped that CR7 had a bad day, but let's not get ahead.

Portugal showed a lot more confidence in the first half and gained a deserved 2-0 lead in the latter stages. Pivotal to the Selecção domination was a careful offensive midfield, resting primarily on the shoulders of Mereiles and Postiga.

But we have long-since learned that we should never rule Denmark out, and surely enough Arsenal's Bendtner got them up on the scoreboard with 4' left to play. Aside from the score change, psychologically it is much easier to take to the locker rooms knowing that the job to do is half as hard. And early in the second, Bendtner struck again and equalized with another sneaky header on the run. Now he has scored in five out of the six international games that he has played against Portugal. I fancy they don't fancy him much back in Lisbon! (That might have something to do with these underpants... I mean, wtf?! lol) 

But before Bendtner's equalizer, Ronaldo wasted two incredible chances to extend Portugal's lead to 3-1. The first two of these chances, too, were crystal clear, those kinds of chances that make you jump up and yell "my dead grandma would score that!!" at the TV. I never did like Ronaldo, who is a bully and a much overrated player. This seems to prove it further, as has his subpar performance in nearly every important international game he has played. Put simply, he cannot lead his team and does not deliver when it matters . These are the marks of a good club player who will never be remembered in any other setting.

Instead, Portugal's win came thanks to the young Varela, who capitalized on his one chance. He struck, was denied, kept his cool, switched to the other foot, and struck again, this time successfully. It was an excellent goal, like all of Portugal's and Bendtner's second. Ronaldo aside, both teams played well and a win would not have been a steal for either.

Now the situation in group B is very interesting. Portugal, Denmark, and Germany each have 3 points, and if the Dutch beat the Deutsch (ha!) tonight it will be 3 all. Much as I like Germany, I hope they lose: that way we'll have an epic four-way tie and an unforgettable third round in four days!

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HOLLAND		1	:	2		GERMANY
	van Persie 73'				Gomez 24', 37'

My match rating: ★★

My man of the match: Gomez (G)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

"Unbelievable" is the word that comes to mind to describe the Netherlands' performance in these first two games. Van Marwijk's team can count on an impressive array of talent that most nations would pillage and murder to have. Not only does he play them conservatively, but they don't seem to be able to do even that very well. In the Denmark match they produced one of the most sterile offenses I have ever seen despite the many chances, and tonight they succumbed to the Germans' superior firepower and physical prowess.

Simply put, Germany ran more, faster, better, and for longer. With the exception of van Persie's lucky goal and the fifteen minutes that followed, Holland rarely even found its way into the German box. On the one hand, Ozil dominated the midfield over an obviously frustrated Sneijder, who must have felt like he was preaching in the desert, and he was. At the other end, Lahm and Schweinsteiger disposed of DeJong and Heitinga as they pleased. It was a stunning display of the tactical choice pioneered by Klinsmann and reaffirmed by Joachim Löw: contemporary Deutsch fußall is almost entirely centered on fast, all-court wingers. There is simply no way to counter that, if the wingers are good, and Lahm and Schweini are among the world's best.

No four-way tie at the top as I had hoped, but the situation is still interesting. In fact, it is even more so, for I have never seen a more intricate set of possibilities after the second match day. While it is typical for a group with no ties to be open until the last minute of the last match of the last round, this one is pretty damn insane. See some interesting scenarios after the standings table!

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GROUP B STANDINGS

team	points	wins	ties	losses	goals+	goals-
GERMANY	6	2	0	0	3	1
PORTUGAL	3	1	0	1	3	3
DENMARK	3	1	0	1	3	3
NETHERLANDS	0	0	0	2	1	3

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First I will explain the UEFA regulations for tie-breaking in Euro 2012, which are a little different than usual. Then I will apply these rules to group B and analyze each of the eight possible cases in some detail.

EURO 2012 TIE-BREAKING RULES

The first tie-breaking criterion to be used is alternate standings among the teams in question. If two teams are tied, say A and B, whoever won the match between A and B will advance. This is also sometimes called the criterion of direct confrontation. If three teams are tied instead, say A, B, & C, their points are recalculated as if this were a three-team group, thus ignoring the outcomes of all matches in which team D played. Hence the name "alternate" standings.

The second tie-breaking criterion is the goal difference in the matches among the teams in question, or, for short, alternate goal difference. In the case of a two-way tie not broken by the first criterion, the alternate goal difference will also be identical and we'll need to move to the third criterion (below). In the case of a three-way tie, the import of team D is once again ignored and the goal differences is recalculated. This is done by ignoring any goals that the three tied teams A-B-C have scored against or conceded to team D.

The third tie-breaking criterion is alternate goal scoring, which calculates the number of goals scored in the matches by the teams in question, thus again ignoring goals scored against the other team(s). In the case of a two- or three- way tie, this is often the deciding criterion. In the case of a four-way tie, this criterion is the first applicable one. This is so because the only way to get a four-way tie is if all matches in the group were drawn: then alternate standings and alternate goal difference will obviously be identical for all four teams.

Should there still be a tie, the fourth criterion is goal difference in all the group matches, thus including those played against teams that are not tied. The fifth criterion is goal scoring in all group matches. Sixth is UEFA ranking, seventh is fair play (fewest red cards first and then fewest yellows), and eighth is a coin toss. No international competition has ever required more than the fifth criterion of tie-breaking. In theory, only a group where all games resulted in identical draws (all 0-0, or all 1-1, etc) would need the sixth or more.

AS THEY APPLY TO "GROUP B" AT EURO 2012

Both games are ties.

• Germany qualify first (7) and Portugal qualify second (4). In this likely scenario, the standings would be: Germany 7, Portugal 4, Denmark 4, Holland 1, and Portugal would second due to alternate standings, having defeated Denmark in direct confrontation.

Denmark-Germany is a tie. Portugal beats Holland.

• Germany qualify first (7) and Portugal qualify second (6). Denmark and Holland are out with 4 and 0.

Denmark-Germany is a tie. Holland beats Portugal.

• Germany qualify first (7) and Denmark qualify second (4). Portugal and Holland are out with 3.

Denmark beats Germany. Portugal-Holland is a tie.

• Denmark qualify first (6) and Germany qualify second (6). Denmark takes first because of alternate standings / direct confrontation, having beaten Germany in the last match. Portugal and Holland are out with 4 and 1, respectively.

Denmark beats Germany. Holland beats Portugal.

• Denmark qualify first (6) and Germany qualify second (6). Denmark takes first because of alternate standings / direct confrontation, having beaten Germany in the last match. Portugal and Holland are out with 3 each.

Denmark beats Germany. Portugal beats Holland.

• Portugal and Denmark qualify. First and second spots depend on goal difference. The standings here would be: Portugal 6, Denmark 6, Germany 6, Holland 0.

• The criterion of alternate standings is useless, for the points recalculated after ignoring Holland result in a three-way tie at 3 points all. This is because all three have defeated Holland and all three have lost a match to one of the other three tied teams: Germany to Denmark, Denmark to Portugal, and Portugal to Germany.

• Alternate goal difference often breaks the tie, but not necessarily always. Ignoring Holland's import, right now it's Germany +1, Portugal +1, and Denmark -1. Thus, it depends on the actual scores. Say that Denmark wins by two goals and Portugal by one. The differences will be: Portugal +2, Denmark +1, and Germany -1, with Portugal taking first and Denmark second. But if, say, Denmark wins by four and Portugal by one, the differences are: Denmark +3, Portugal +2, and Germany -3, with Denmark taking first and Portugal second. However, if both Denmark and Portugal win by one, the differences are: Portugal +2, Denmark 0, and Germany 0. Portugal surely takes first, but Denmark and Germany are still tied and we must use another criterion.

• However, it is unclear exactly which one and why. I see at least three options. Thankfully, in the case of this one group all three possible outcomes are identical, so no problem...

• One option is that we reformulate this as a two-way tie and go back to the first criterion of alternate standings. If so, then Denmark takes second for having beaten Germany.

• Another option is to proceed to the third criterion, that of alternate goals scored. Recall that this was the number of goals scored "in the matches between the teams in question," thus ignoring the other teams. But which teams do we ignore? Only Holland, which was never a part of the three-way tie, or also Portugal, which was a part of the three-way tie but it's not a part of this two-way tie? I guess it's the latter, but the UEFA document is not crystal clear on this point. Either way, as I said, the outcome is the same. If we ignore only Holland, the alternate goals scored will be Denmark 2 and Germany 1. If we also ignore Portugal, it will be Denmark 0 and Germany 0. In either case, since in this scenario Denmark beats Germany, it will surely end up having more goals scored than Germany, and thus will advance as second in the group.

Germany beats Denmark. Holland beats Portugal.

• Germany qualify first (9) and Holland qualify second (3). The standings would be Germany 9, Holland 3, Portugal 3, and Denmark 3.

• Alternate standings does not break the tie. All three teams were beaten by Germany and earned their three points against one another: Denmark beat Holland, Portugal beat Denmark, and Holland beat Portugal.

• Alternate goal difference may or may not break the tie. Right now, the alternate goal difference is Portugal +1, Holland -1, and Denmark -1. If Holland beats Portugal by two goals or more, then the differences are: Holland +1 or more, Portugal -1 or less, and Denmark -1. Thus, the Dutch advance. But if Holland beats Portugal by only one goal, it will be: Holland 0, Portugal 0, and Denmark -1. Thus, in that case, we will need the third criterion to decide. (Notice that, of course, Denmark stands no chance in this scenario and at this level of tie-breaking: their goal difference will never move from -1, since they have yet to play Germany and whatever happens in that game is irrelevant, goal-wise).

• Alternate goal scoring depends on how we interpret the UEFA rule. I explained the problem in the previous scenario. The thing is that in this scenario, not all three outcomes are the same!!

• Option one: Holland advances. We go back to alternate standings, and Holland beats Portugal.

• Option two: Portugal advances. We stay with alternate goal scoring and only ignore Germany's contributions. Right now, Portugal earned its alternate goal difference of +1 by scoring 3 goals and conceding 2, while Holland earned its -1 by scoring 0 and conceding 1. Remember that the only reason we're at this level is if Holland beats Portugal by one goal. If so, then it's impossible for Holland to ever score more goals than Portugal in total, since Portugal already has a 3-goal-scored advantage over them. Thus, in this scenario, Portugal always advances.

• Option three: Holland advances. We stay with alternate goal scoring and ignore Germany's and Denmark's contributions both. If so, then both Portugal and Holland scored 0 goals, and since in this scenario Holland beats Portugal, Holland ends up with more goals scored than Portugal, and thus advances.

• If this ain't a fucking mess, I don't know what is!

Germany beats Denmark. Portugal beats Holland.

• Germany qualify first (9) and Portugal qualify second (6). Denmark and Holland are out with 3 and 0.

This group's ties will be broken by, at most, the third tie-breaking criterion. There is no mathematical possibility to get to the fourth tier and below.

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Euro 2012: Group B matchday 1 analysis

NETHERLANDS-DENMARK 0-1

Simply put, this was the comedy of horrors. It reminded me of Chelsea-Barcellona, except that Denmark didn't just park the bus. To quote a friend, they parked the bus, flipped it over, and set it on fire. Also, unlike Chelsea, Denmark has very little actual talent this year. With all that said, despite Denmark's many flaws (which will become painfully evident in the next two games), the Dutch deserve the hardest spanking. They shot a total of 27 times, over half of which on goal, and didn't even come close to scoring, save for one occasion with van Persie and another with van der Vaart. They pushed, and pushed, and pushed, and dominated three-quarters of the pitch for three-quarters of the game, and then completely wasted every chance they got. It's not uncommon for a dominating team to remain scoreless, but I've rarely seen such impressive technical and tactical dominance result in no goals. Denmark's strategy of defend and counter would have failed miserably if they had faced a team that lived true to its own strategy and capitalized on even one-tenth of their opportunities, but that was not the case. And since at the end of the day the scoreboard is God, and you don't argue with God, that's all she wrote. Now the Dutch are in deep trouble. As van Marwijk remarks, they must beat Germany to have any shot at passing. Nor should Oranje fans be reassured by the fact that "the play is there, the goals will come." In football, ironically, it is much harder to score than to play well. When you play well and don't score, you feel impotent. When you play badly and still score, you feel lucky. And while lucky teams sometimes win; impotent teams always lose.

Goals: Krohn-Dehli (D), 24'
My match rating: ★ ½

My man of the match: Snejder (N)

Official report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

GERMANY-PORTUGAL 1-0

Easily the most entertaining game of Euro 2012 so far, and honestly that was easy. Both teams are technically proficient and tactically savvy, and struck an intelligent balance of fast offense and guarded midfield. The merengues Ozil and Ronaldo set the pace on their respective sides, proving once more, if ever that was necessary, that contemporary football is ruled by midfield-minded wingers with a keen eye and a clean touch (sorry, Sneijder: almost gone is the era of the trequartista). I was most impressed by the stability of both teams, who stuck to the plan and never fell apart... at least before the final ten minutes, when the brain is low on oxygen and the muscles high in lactic. If that's true, Germany's win is an accident, in the sense that they scored on an episodic counter that could have happened to either team. If anything, the clearest opportunities were Portugal's, with a shot off the bar and a seemingly easy tap-in that got deflected. If Netherlands don't get their heads out of their asses, Germany will sweep this and Portugal will come in second three or five points behind. Judging from these first two games, at least, that's my prediction: NL and DK out.

Goals: Gomez (G), 72'
My  match rating: ★★★
My man of the match: Ozil (G)

Official report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

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GROUP B STANDINGS

team	points	wins	ties	losses	goals+	goals-
DENMARK	3	1	0	0	1	0
GERMANY	3	1	0	0	1	0
NETHERLANDS	0	0	0	1	0	1
PORTUGAL	0	0	0	1	0	1

Ten notable exclusions from Euro 2012

Eurosport Italia published this list. Can't say I disagree. Reporting the list below.

1. VILLA -- Barcelona, Spain -- injury
2. PUYOL  --  Barcelona, Spain  --  injury
3. ROSSI  --  Villareal, Italy  --  injury
4. RICHARDS  --  Manchester City, England  --  choice
5. SOLDADO  --  Villareal, Spain  --  choice
6. DEJONG  --  Ajax, Netherlands  --  choice
7. GUIDETTI  --  Feyenoord, Sweden  --  choice
8. MARIN  --  Werder Bremen  --  choice
9. GOURCUFF  --  Lyon, France  --  choice
10. CACAU  --  Stuttgart, Germany  --  choice

Like the author, I am especially surprised about Richards and Soldado, who both played a stellar season in their respective clubs.

On the one hand, "there is no room for everyone" is a piss-poor excuse to justify bad picks. On the other hand, it is true that some will be left out, and sometimes it makes sense to rely on "fame."

Ought I to bring a bold young striker who's currently in great shape but has little international experience... or should I rely on the old guard, counting on the fact that they're going to deliver when the occasion calls for it?

Beats me. In 2006, the two oldest teams in the tourney (by far), Italy and France, ended up playing the final. In 2010, Spain and Netherlands were among the youngest. A sapient mixture of both is probably the way to go.