Holy sports overload!

AHHHHH!! So much stuff has happened lately with work, life, etc. that I haven't had time to do my regular updates. So here goes a much more reduced version. (Not that anyone is actually reading this, or cares, but this blog's primary purpose is to serve as a memoir for me for the future, so I still do want to be consistent).

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In Group A, Greece surprisingly beat Russia. I mean, what the fuck?! Greece is one of the worst teams I have ever seen play, and yet they get it done. "Parking the bus" doesn't even capture their style of play; I've said much about that in my first match-day reviews, so it's not news that I'm not a fan. Thankfully Germany should take care of them swiftly in the second quarterfinal. The Czechs win over Poland is not at all shocking; if anything, I'm surprised it wasn't a larger one. The Czech Republic may not be a great team, but Poland has no business being here at all, and if they weren't co-hosts they simply wouldn't be. So this one's a no-brainer.

In Group B, the so-called Group of Death (which was instead pretty mellow after all), Holland's miraculous rebirth didn't happen... but only just. Halfway through the first half, with Germany topping Denmark and the Netherlands up 1-0 on Portugal, it seemed close. But then winds changed, and within 20 minutes we went through THREE different qualification scenarios as both the Danes and the Portuguese equalized. Then two goals by Bronaldo (not even shittin' ya) and a momentous Teutonic offense returned the group's two top spots to their legitimate owners: Germany and Portugal, in that order.

Next week, as German politics may bail Greece back into Eurozone, German football will kick Greece out of Euro 2012 and back to where they belong: outside of international competitions. Czech Republic-Portugal is a much more interesting quarterfinal and I'm not sure what to expect. At least on paper, Portugal is the better team and will prevail... but they have struggled more than they should have in group A, while the Czechs have shown impressive resilience in coming back from that shocking Russian goal-fest and win the next two matches. We shall see.

Tomorrow and Tuesday we finish the group stages. Of course, my heart hopes that Italy makes it through, but realistically it will be Spain and Croatia in group C. I'm also pretty sure that France and England will both make it out of group D alive, which will set up the following amazing quarterfinals on the board's left side: Spain-France and Croatia-England. I. Cannot. Wait!

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It's been going on for four days but I haven't posted a single goddamn thing. It's not that it flew under my radar; if anything, I've watched more of the early rounds this year than on most other years .But again, blog updates have taken the backseat in the last few days, and calculating the Euro 2012 group stage qualification scenarios took up most of what little time I did dedicate to The Summer of 2012.

With that said, it's been an interesting U.S. Open. Just as I write, Furyk and McDowell spar in the final few holes as Simpson waits in the clubhouse with a precious one-shot lead. I honestly don't really care who wins at this point. All my favorites did poorly: Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, and Phil Mickelson. Tiger was in it well until the third round (only two shots behind), but lost himself in the first five holes of the last round with three bogeys and one double bogey. Literally unwatchable.

Much more watchable was Beau Hossler, a 17-year-old amateur who shared the lead for a few minutes in the second round and tied for third at the end of the third round. He too worsened noticeably in the fourth, probably due to pressure, and ended up rounding in 76. Still, I've rarely seen such a young kid play with such confidence. Even making the cut is impressive for an amateur, but being in the top 10 until the very last few holes it nothing short of amazing. Go boy!

Just as I finish revising this paragraph, both Furyk and McDowell failed to secure a birdie at the 18th, and thus Webb Simpson wins the 2012 U.S. Open. His wife is unbelievably hot, so hail to the king baby!

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Oklahoma City took a well-played game 1 at home. Miami never really looked alive, and even though they almost came back from 17 points down, the Thunder were not phased. OKC's superiority was expressed at several levels, from rebounding to better shooting percentages and (most of all) to better shot quality.

In game 2, though, Miami turned the tables and completely dominated OKC from start to finish, save for a brief stint in the third quarter when the Thunder came back from 20 down and even briefly took the lead. But James and Wade (both over 30 points for the night) led the Heat back again and to a 4-point win. I think the Heat had much more difficulty winning this game than they should have, given the way it had started. On the other hand, a win is a win, especially if away in the NBA Finals.

Miami now has three games at home and may win the series... but I'd be careful to rule the Thunder out just yet, and I think this is one of the series where the home court advantage will count the least. I think we're going back out West in six days. With which score, I'm not sure; probably 3-2 Heat, and it will be awesome to see OKC face two straight elimination games at home. Either way, it will be fun as usual.

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Hopefully I can update more regularly in the near future! So much is coming up....... including the Tour de France, which is my second most-hyped event after the Euro. Yes, even more than the Olympics. So sue me.
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Euro 2012: group B third round possible outcomes

At the end of the three group matches, two or more teams may be tied; perhaps even all four. Rematches or penalty shootouts are impossible at this stage, so UEFA's tie-breaking regulations apply. Click here to read a quick and accessible summary of those rules and of the acronyms I use in the analysis below.

Below are all nine possible scenarios in Group B, which plays today. As you can see, Germany is almost guaranteed to advance, but given that there were no draws in this group, not even the Netherlands are mathematically out yet!

Click to enlarge. Right-click and save to download.

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Euro 2012: group A third round possible outcomes

At the end of the three group matches, two or more teams may be tied; perhaps even all four. Rematches or penalty shootouts are impossible at this stage, so UEFA's tie-breaking regulations apply. Click here to read a quick and accessible summary of those rules and of the acronyms I use in the analysis below.

Below are all nine possible scenarios in Group A, which already ended; I forgot to post this stuff yesterday! As it turned out, one of the simplest cases obtained, with Greek and Czech wins. Thus, only the first level of tie-breaking applied: alternate standings.

Click to enlarge. Right-click and save to download.

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Euro 2012 group stage tie-breaking rules

You may read the official UEFA Euro 2012 Regulations here; what follows is my summary. If you know all this, you may jump directly to how these rules apply to groups A, B, C, or D.

Eight tie-breaking criteria may be used at the group stage. These are always used in order and only when applicable. Once a criterion fails to apply, we proceed down the list. We never move back up the list, even if the number of teams that are tied should change after the application of a later criterion. Say there are three tied teams: A, B, C. Criterion #1 fails to break the tie. Criterion #2 eliminates team C, but teams A and B are still tied. Criterion #3 breaks the tie by using the same rules as if three teams were still tied. As you will see, this is relevant and proper in some (rather rare) scenarios.

Here are the eight tie-breaking criteria:

1. Alternate standings (AS). "Higher number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question." If two teams are tied (A, B), whoever won the match between A and B will advance; this is also sometimes called the criterion of direct confrontation. If three teams are tied (A, B, C), their points are recalculated as if this were a three-team group, thus ignoring the outcomes of all matches in which team D played. Hence the name "alternate" standings.


2. Alternate goal difference (AGD). "Superior goal difference in the matches between the teams in question." In a two-way tie not broken by AS, the alternate goal difference will also be identical and we will need to move to the third criterion (below). In a three-way tie, the import of team D is once again ignored and the goal difference is recalculated. This is done by ignoring any goals that the three tied teams A-B-C have scored against or conceded to team D.


3. Alternate goal scoring (AGS). "Higher number of goals scored in the matches by the teams in question." Again we ignore goals scored against the other team(s). In two-way ties, this will again fail to break the tie. In three-way ties, this is often the deciding criterion. This is also the first applicable criterion in a four-way tie, since the only way to get a four-way tie is if all group matches were draws, and in that case both AS and AGD would obviously be identical for all four teams. (If all the draws also had the same score, like 0-0 or 1-1, then criterion #6 becomes the first applicable, since OGD and OGS will also be identical for all teams).


4. Overall goal difference (OGD). "Superior goal difference in all the group matches." Should the first three criteria fail to break the tie, the import of the other (non-tied) teams is reconsidered, so all the goals scored and conceded against all teams are counted.


5. Overall goal scoring (OGS). "Higher number of goals scored in all the group matches." Same as above: all goals scored count.


6. UEFA Ranking (RK). "Position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system." These rankings are calculated according to many criteria and include the international success of the nation's club teams over the last few years. See the full rankings here.


7. Fair play (FP). Of the tied teams, that or those with the fewest red cards advance. If that fails to break the tie, yellow cards are considered. If that fails to break the tie, the number of fouls committed is considered. 


8. Drawing of lots (DL). The old-fashioned coin toss.

No international competition has ever required more than the fifth criterion for tie-breaking. It's also highly debatable whether UEFA rankings should come before fair play, as the latter applies to the current tournament and the former doesn't. This is a real issue, because Groups B and C in Euro 2012 may have ties that will only be broken by the UEFA coefficient ranking system. A rare possibility, but still.

See my group-by-group analysis in the following posts:

GROUP A --- GROUP B --- GROUP C --- GROUP D

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Euro 2012: group D matchday 2 analysis

UKRAINE		0	:	2		FRANCE
					Menex 53' Cabaye 56'

My match rating: ★★

My man of the match: Menez (F)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

Because awwww.

The most memorable feature of this match was the 57-minute suspension of play because of heavy rain and lightning striking the stadium. A mere ten minutes into the first half, the referee ordered both teams in.

When play resumed, the French dominated. The first half was a succession of Bleus goal chances, now with Benzema, now Menez. The latter had a goal ruled off-side and an incredible miss from the goal box; another way to look at it is that Ukrainian goalkeeper Pyatov made a miraculous save. We'll go with that.

The second half started in much the same vein. France quickly got on the board after a hammering attack that left Ukraine shocked, awed, and down 1-0. This time Menez did admirably, controlling a difficult pass at the edge of the box and grazing the near post with a precise zinger. Not 3 minutes later, the young Cabaye doubled the lead.

This is yet another instance of back-to-back goals in this Euro 2012. Spain-Italy, Ireland-Croatia, France-England, Greece-Czech Republic, and Denmark-Portugal all featured two goals scored in quick succession, though rarely by the same team. After that, France looked good and Ukraine looked dead; at least as dead as their supporters sounded. I have seldom heard a stadium silenced so swiftly and so bluntly by a visitor goal.

As an AS Roma supporter, then, I was especially pleased to see Menez get international recognition. When he's focused, he is among the most technically proficient strikers I have ever seen play the game of football. No, that's not an overstatement. He is capable of superb ball control and has a remarkable football vision, which makes him both a deadly striker and an intelligent winger or trequartista. Too bad that he rarely lives up to his potential, a problem that has damned many wanna-be champions to oblivion. But he still has time to shine and I'll definitely be rooting for him.

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SWEDEN		2	:	3		ENGLAND
	Johnson (og) 49' Mellberg 59'				Carroll 23' Walcott 64' Welbeck 78'

My match rating: ★★★

My man of the match: Walcott (E)

UEFA report ---|||--- Player ratings ---|||--- Photos ---|||--- Highlights

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GROUP D STANDINGS

team	points	wins	ties	losses	goals+	goals-
FRANCE	4	1	1	0	3	1
ENGLAND	4	1	1	0	4	3
UKRAINE	3	1	0	1	2	3
SWEDEN	0	0	0	2	3	5

Keeping up with the Marios: Italian scandals and history repeating

When group C plays its last Euro 2012 group-stage round on Monday, there is distinct possibility that Spain and Croatia fix their match and advance both, leaving Italy behind.

Even if Italy defeats Ireland, which is of course far from obvious, its fate still depends on the outcome of the Spain-Croatia match. If it has a winner, whoever wins it advances with 7 points, along with Italy who will then have 5. But if that match is a tie, then all three teams will end up with 5 points and we will need a tie-breaker to decide which two advance.

And therein lies the catch: if the Spain-Croatia draw ends 2-2, Italy is mathematically out, regardless of how well it defeats Ireland. This is because according to UEFA regulations, the relevant tiebreaker in this case is how many goals the three tied teams have scored only in the matches played among themselves. So it's both irrelevant how many goals Italy scores in defeating Ireland, for those goals won't count toward the tie-breaker; and relevant how many goals Spain and Croatia score in their draw, since all of those goals will count. I will post a much more detailed analysis tonight, discussing all groups and all tie-breaking rules.

The reason for the existence of this rule is to curtail the influence of "cushion teams." Sometimes there are much weaker teams that, on the last match day and upon seeing themselves already knocked out, may be bribed to (or decide to) concede many goals to their opponent, who may have an interest in improving its own goal difference to increase its chances of breaking a tie in its favor. So instead of breaking ties only by goal difference earned in all the disputed group matches, the rule now breaks ties according to "alternate" goal difference, that is, the goal difference only among the teams in question, those that are in fact tied. But surely even this rule leaves open the possibility of dishonesty, which is precisely the one in question. At most, it but reduces the likelihood of foul play.

What is more, this isn't the first time that this happens to Italy. Back at Euro 2008, Italy's group also included Sweden, Denmark, and Bulgaria. Italy was lagging, and on the third matchday, a 2-2 draw between Sweden and Denmark would knock Italy out mathematically. Surely enough, even though Italy beat Bulgaria, Sweden and Denmark slowly played their way into a 2-2 tie, including two (literally) incredible goals caused by defensive mistakes. UEFA probed for foul play, but nothing came out. Nor could it have, because when the outcome is so obvious, there is no need for an explicit agreement: all players, coaches, and staff "just know." Likewise, this Monday at Euro 2012, there will be no need to envision Iniesta and Modric meet at some shady cafe in a Polish small town and agree to fix the match over a Pabst and a good cigar.

Fixing things like that is the Italian way, after all! Sports journalist Caterina Camerlengo argues in this op-ed that it would be extremely hypocritical of Italians NOT to expect foul play from Spaniards and Croatians. For the past six years, Italian football has seen scandals so serious that they will eventually bring to the downfall and dissolution of calcio as it exists today. It's now clear that it's common practice for Italian football professionals to fix matches, bribe, bet, and trade gifts and sex for certain favors on matchday. This involves players, coaches, administrators, agents, and of course referees. Since 2006, over 100 people have been arrested and over a thousand questioned by police departments nationwide. Millions of euros' worth of fines have been levied, and some individuals have done considerable prison time. Yet, very little changes.

And we would dare be surprised if two other nations decided that they didn't want to bother being fair to us, after all?

Yes, Spain's and Croatia's footballing federations are currently above suspicion, which means that there is a relatively low likelihood of them even entertaining the idea of a stitch-up. And yes, Italy's scandals are for the most part domestic and have not yet marred international football, except of course to further diminish the already low weight that FIGC (the Italian football governing body) carries within UEFA.

Yet, I can't shake the thought that if Spain and Croatia fix or otherwise tacitly agree on a 2-2, or simply don't do much to change that score should it naturally arise, then in some way Italy will have deserved it. And if you know how much the Euro means to me, you know that I wouldn't say that lightly. Italy's 2006 world cup win ranks as the single happiest moment of my (sports-fan) life, especially as it came on the heels of a major international humiliation for the betting scandal. But this time, I think we've gone too far, and I wouldn't be so shocked if others decided to pay us back in the same currency.

Unless, of course, they decide to do the Jesus thing and turn the other cheek, but neither Spain nor Croatia are very religious countries -- again, that should be Italy's territory!

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Some more Euro 2012 trivia and funnies!

All user-produced at 9gag. Click links for the full pictures. For teh lulz!

          

  

This sweet infographic at left summarizes the key points of the historic rivarly between Germany and The Netherlands, a rivalry whose latest chapter at Euro 2012 was rather disappointing, unfortunately. Well, at least there was no spitting! 


And since you're at it, you should check out this apology by some Polish citizens about the behavior of their compatriots toward Russian supporters. Well done. Now I wonder if those Russian fascists who attacked Polish fans and got their association fined $150k will reciprocate.